Says strong Western Disturbance to hit J&K on 22-23 Jan with widespread snowfall likely in plains, cold air mass to hit J&K parts on 23rd night, to bring temperatures down, with dry and moderate snow
Srinagar, Jan 19: Jammu & Kashmir is set to experience significant winter weather as a strong Western Disturbance (WD) is expected to impact the region from January 22, initially affecting higher reaches.
By the night of 22 January, most parts of J&K are likely to witness rain and snow.
Faizan Arif Keng independent weather forcaster told Meteorological models over the past two days indicate consistent wind patterns, though precipitation intensity may vary slightly.
He say the overall scenario points towards a substantial winter spell across the Union Territory.
There is a high probability of widespread snowfall even in the plains, supported by favourable temperatures and moderate to heavy precipitation.
The heaviest impact is expected between the night of 22 January and the afternoon/evening of 23 January, if Allah wills, we will witness first major snowfall of the season
The cold air associated with this WD is expected to produce dry snow, which can accumulate quickly and heavily, even with moderate precipitation. Dry snow is likely to lead to higher accumulation compared to wet snow.
Districts including Doda, Poonch, Kishtwar, and Ramban are likely to receive good snowfall. Plains in the Jammu region may experience moderate to heavy rainfall, with areas near the Pir Panjal mountains expected to be the most affected.
A cold air mass moving from the west is expected to trigger a sharp fall in temperatures on the night of 23 January. Calm winds following the precipitation could enhance radiational cooling, increasing the chances of very low night temperatures, especially if fresh snow accumulates.
Authorities have cautioned that roads may turn extremely slippery due to fresh snowfall and freezing conditions. Daytime conditions on 23 January may also remain hazardous, increasing the risk of road accidents. Residents and travellers are advised to take precautions.
Precautionary Notes:
Landslides and shooting stones are likely along the Jammu-Srinagar National Highway.
The Ramban sector may turn slippery due to snow and ice.
Residents in higher reaches should clear accumulated snow from rooftops to prevent structural damage.
Flight and train services may be disrupted; travellers are advised to plan accordingly.
A fresh forecast update will be issued on 22 January morning to reflect the latest model trends.
Forecast confidence stands at approximately 75%, with meteorologists saying the next 48 hours will provide clearer insights into precipitation intensity and snow distribution. (JKNS)
