● A fresh Western Disturbance is set to develop over Afghanistan on February 19 and quickly move towards Jammu and Kashmir by February 20, bringing widespread rain and snow across the Union Territory.
● The first signs of the disturbance will be felt in the higher reaches from late night on February 19, with precipitation gradually intensifying as it spreads across the region.
● Most parts of Jammu and Kashmir are likely to witness a moderate spell of rain/snow, along with the possibility of a heavy spell in some parts.
● Overall, on average, Jammu region may record higher precipitation amount than Kashmir Valley. The Chenab Valley districts – Ramban, Kishtwar, and Doda – are also expected to receive moderate to heavy precipitation.
● In Kashmir Valley plains, rains may dominate on that day, but a sharp drop in temperature could trigger a transition to snowfall, especially under prolonged heavy precipitation.
● Temperatures, which will remain in the range of 15 – 18°C on February 19, are expected to drop below 7°C on February 20.
● The Pir Panjal range is expected to receive heavy snowfall, affecting areas such as Gulmarg, Sinthan Top, Peer Ki Gali, and other parts of Mughal Road.
● Due to higher temperatures, lightning and thundershowers may remain a common feature on that day, especially in Jammu region.
● There is a risk of shooting stones/landslides on Jammu-Srinagar National Highway on 20th February.
● Weather is expected to improve from 21st February onwards.
Forecast Insights: Kashmir Weather
